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BGS Global Geomagnetic Activity Forecast

Forecast period
(noon-to-noon GMT) 		Forecast Global Activity level
Average Max
14 AUG-15 AUG QUIET ACTIVE
15 AUG-16 AUG QUIET QUIET
16 AUG-17 AUG QUIET QUIET

For more information about the forecast and activity categories see
geomag.bgs.ac.uk/education/activitylevels.html

Activity during last 24 hours

Global   Local (UK)
Date Average Max At time (UTC) Average Max At time (UTC)
13 AUG-14 AUG QUIET ACTIVE 21:00-00:00 QUIET ACTIVE 21:00-00:00

Additional Comments

The solar wind speed is modestly enhanced at the moment, increasing chances of an isolated ACTIVE period during the first forecast.
For the second period we do not anticipate any enhancement in the geomagnetic activity.
This morning an X1.1 flare was detected at AR13784, which is located at the centre of the disc. It is possible it has an associated CME which may have an Earth-directed component. However, we currently do not have enough images to make an informed prediction. We will be analysing the images as they arrive and we expect to have a better assessment by tomorrow.
Time of forecast: 14 Aug 2024
© UKRI