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BGS Global Geomagnetic Activity Forecast

Forecast period
(noon-to-noon GMT) 		Forecast Global Activity level
Average Max
4 FEB-5 FEB ACTIVE STORM G2
5 FEB-6 FEB ACTIVE STORM G2
6 FEB-7 FEB QUIET ACTIVE

For more information about the forecast and activity categories see
geomag.bgs.ac.uk/education/activitylevels.html

Activity during last 24 hours

Global   Local (UK)
Date Average Max At time (UTC) Average Max At time (UTC)
3 FEB-4 FEB QUIET QUIET 18:00-21:00 QUIET QUIET 18:00-21:00

Additional Comments

A glancing blow from a coronal mass ejection (CME), associated with the X8.1 flare from the 1st Feb, is expected to arrive during the first forecast period. Activity could reach STORM G1/G2 levels following the CME arrival.
Solar activity is high with active region 14366 continuing to produce X and M-class flares. A CME from a filament eruption was observed yesterday. This looks to be directed away from Earth. The forecast will be updated tomorrow if further analysis suggests any Earth-directed component.
Time of forecast: 04 Feb 2026
© UKRI