Geomagnetic storm forecast - 9^th October 2024

What Has Happened?

We are expecting an increase in geomagnetic activity over the next three days, with a possibility that conditions may reach up to STORM G4 on 11^th Oct.

Two coronal mass ejections (CME) travelling southwest of the Earth-facing solar disc were observed on 7^th OCT. Both CMEs may glance past the Earth late on 10^th Oct or early on 11^th Oct and they could enhance geomagnetic activity up to STORM levels.

A full-halo CME left the Sun at approximately 02:30 UT on 09^th Oct. It was associated with an X1.8-class solar flare originating from an Earth-facing active region close to the centre of the Sun. This fast-moving CME may arrive as early as the evening of the 10^th Oct, or by the early hours of the 11^th. It is possible for this CME to combine with the previous CMEs and lead to a significant enhancement in geomagnetic activity during the night of 10^th and throughout 11th Oct. STORM periods are likely, with a possibility of reaching STORM G4 on the NOAA Geomagnetic storm scales.

Assuming clear dark skies, there is an increased chance of seeing the aurora during 10-11^th Oct. Those in Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland have the best chance if the weather is favourable.

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Glossary

BGS

The British Geological Survey is a geoscience research centre that is part of UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) and affiliated to the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).

CME or Coronal Mass Ejection

The eruption of a portion of the outer atmosphere of the Sun into space, caused by rapid changes in its magnetic field. Often occurs along with a solar flare.

Solar Flare

Energy released by the explosive reorganisation of magnetic fields within the Sun's atmosphere.