Geomagnetic storm forecast - 12^th September 2024

What Has Happened?

The coronal mass ejection (CME) that left the Sun on 10^th Sep arrived this morning, 12^th Sep. The CME carried significant southward interplanetary magnetic field, and the disturbance is currently ongoing, causing geomagnetic G2 STORM conditions.

The Sun has continued at moderately active levels with multiple M-class flares, an X-class flare, and several CMEs in the last few days. We anticipate at least one of the CMEs to be Earth-bound, and arrive early in the morning of 14^th Sep. This is likely to result in prolonged enhancements in geomagnetic activity, hence further STORM periods could follow.

Assuming clear dark skies, there is an increased chance of seeing the aurora from 12^th to 14^th Sep. Those in Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland have a better chance if the weather is favourable.

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Glossary

BGS

The British Geological Survey is a geoscience research centre that is part of UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) and affiliated to the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).

CME or Coronal Mass Ejection

The eruption of a portion of the outer atmosphere of the Sun into space, caused by rapid changes in its magnetic field. Often occurs along with a solar flare.

Solar Flare

Energy released by the explosive reorganisation of magnetic fields within the Sun's atmosphere.